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The Presidents of Russia and China, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, at the virtual summit on December 15, 2021. |
By: Reid Standish
What a difference one year can make. China already felt triumphant about battling the COVID-19 pandemic when it saw a geopolitical victory in late December 2020 by signing a major trade agreement with the European Union (EU) that sent a strong message to the incoming administration of new US President Joe Biden. ). However, in 2021, she had different plans for Beijing, writes the English-language edition of Radio Free Europe. The investment agreement was indefinitely suspended in May after an exchange of sanctions between China and the EU for violating the rights of Uighurs and members of other Muslim minorities in the western province of Xinjiang. Since then, Taiwan has improved its ties across Europe, and Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu embarked on a significant tour of several Central European countries in October. Lithuania, a small Baltic country of 2.7 million people, was also at the center of Sino-European relations, withdrawing from a summit of China and Central and Eastern European countries in February and then entering into a lengthy dispute with Beijing over its ties with Taiwan. China launched a fierce propaganda campaign, economic sanctions and a diplomatic conflict that led to Vilnius leaving its embassy in Beijing on December 15. While Europe still lacks a cohesive plan for China, events in 2021 encouraged EU officials and governments to seek a tougher stance on Beijing, and the whole episode is a broader mix of diplomatic opportunities and strategic mistakes that have defined Chinese policy from Central Europe to South Asia. during the last year. Looking to 2022, China is preparing to continue its uneven rise across Eurasia. Tensions between Russia and the West helped develop even warmer ties between the Kremlin and Beijing, while the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan, which led to the Taliban's return to power, opened the door to new opportunities, which, however, bring new risks. On the other hand, a crucial moment in modern Chinese history is expected next year, as many predict that President Xi Jinping will lift the limitations of his mandate and demand one-man rule. With the new year of development around the world on the horizon, here are five big trends to follow as China deepens its influence across Eurasia. Careful expansion of China's security footprint Concerns about border security, extremist groups and the security of Chinese personnel across Central and South Asia have risen this year as the Taliban took power in Afghanistan in August, as well as a series of attacks on Chinese nationals working in Pakistan. Beijing has long been concerned about terrorism in the region, especially the threat of Uighur extremist groups, and has begun working to strengthen security relations with all its neighbors - from Central Asian governments to the Taliban - linking China's internal security apparatus to other countries. "So far (Beijing) has shown that it is closely watching its security interests in matters that it fears could directly affect China," Raffaello Pantucci, a senior fellow at the Royal United Institute, told RFE / RL. Services Institute). Many of these partnerships continued to develop in 2021. In October, it was announced that China would finance and build a police base in Tajikistan for Tajik personnel, and an RFE investigation showed that China's presence at the base along the Afghan-Tajik border continues to increase, with Chinese personnel even patrolling parts of the border. "China has shown that it prefers a sensitive approach and would like to focus on building relations (with local governments) in order to solve security problems," Pantucci said. "The big question is whether the fact that Chinese interests are increasingly the target will lead Beijing to consider whether it should have a different kind of presence on the ground." It appears that these links with law enforcement and security agencies across the region will continue to develop in the coming year. Beijing continues to invest in the training of many of its neighbors, and China has reportedly signed 59 extradition agreements with other countries in recent years. A new era for Beijing and Moscow? Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin highlighted their growing ties on December 15 during a 90-minute video call in which they sought to show a united front amid Western pressure on both China and Russia. Moscow and Beijing are not formal allies, although during the talks Putin said that "the new model of cooperation between our countries was formed on principles such as non-interference in internal affairs and respect for each other's interests", while Xi thanked his counterpart for strong support for China's efforts to protect its key international interests ". Their relations are growing stronger as their rivalries with the United States intensify, with joint military exercises and even offering mutual political support on a range of issues, from Putin's criticism of the AUKUS military alliance (consisting of Australia, the United States and Britain) to Moscow's support for security. guarantees to limit Western influence throughout the former Soviet Union. "They are getting closer and although they do not want to formalize the alliance, they are more and more ready to support each other on issues that do not affect the other," Pantucci said. How far this relationship will progress remains to be seen, especially as Russia nervously watches China's growing security and political influence across Central Asia and as the region |